A new analysis from Gallup shows that 20 states are Republican or leaning toward Republican in political party affiliation.
Fourteen other states are Democratic or leaning toward Democratic,
according to the Gallup analysis. The remaining 16 states are considered
competitive.
This is the first time in eight years of analysis that Republican states have outnumbered Democratic states.
The tracking survey comes from counting Republican and Democratic
supporters. People who identify as independents are then asked which
party affiliation they are leaning to.
A “solidly favoring state” is one where there is greater than 10
percentage point advantage over the other party affiliation. A “leaning”
state is one in which one party has an advantage of more than five
points, and competitive states show the parties within five points of
one another.
Maine, Pennsylvania and Michigan all changed from Democratic-leaning to
competitive states, and New Hampshire, Missouri, South Carolina, West
Virginia and Texas moved from competitive to Republican or
Republican-leaning.
The top Republican states were Wyoming, Idaho and Utah. The top Democratic states were Vermont, Hawaii and Rhode Island.
Ohio, North Carolina, Minnesota, Florida and Wisconsin were the most
equal states, where Democratic and Republican affiliation were within
less than one point of each other.
In 2008, a whopping 35 states identified as Democratic or leaning
Democratic, while only five states were identified as solidly Republican
or leaning Republican.
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