The upcoming South Carolina and Nevada nominating contests are expected
to shake up the 2016 presidential race again. And the mix of religious
beliefs — or lack of them — in these states may well be a factor in the
results.
Here are 5 faith facts about these states. Republicans in South
Carolina and Democrats in Nevada pick their candidates Saturday (Feb.
20). Republicans in Nevada choose theirs on Feb. 23, and Democrats in
South Carolina on Feb. 27. (Follow the 5 Faith Facts series as the race runs through this contentious primary season.)
1. Evangelicals still matter in South Carolina.
Although the religious mix in the state is changing, the faith vote is significant. Even Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, an irreligious Jew, bowed his head while attending a prayer breakfast organized by African-American faith leaders in Columbia, S.C., on Tuesday (Feb. 16).
The share of South Carolinians who identify as white and Christian
dropped 16 percentage points, to 50 percent, between 2007 and 2015,
according to Public Religion Research Institute.
White evangelical Protestants (the group that tends to favor son-of-a-pastor Sen. Ted Cruz
) took the strongest hit, declining 10 percentage points. Still, at 26
percent in 2015, this remains the largest single grouping based on
religious self-identification.
White mainline Protestants (like Donald Trump, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton) are now at 16 percent, down from 22 percent in 2007.
Only one group has held steady in eight years. White Catholics (like former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush) make up 6 percent of South Carolina voters. Hispanic Catholics (like Sen. Marco Rubio) rose slightly, reaching 3 percent in the same time period.
Two groups that have traditionally been sources of strength for Democrats have shown increases.
Black Protestants (Ben Carson,
a Seventh-day Adventist, may be an exception to the leaning-left
majority) are now the state’s second-largest religious group at 19
percent, up slightly from 17 percent in 2007. And South Carolina has a
significant number of “nones” — people who claim no religious identity.
They’re now 17 percent, up from 10 percent in 2007, according to PRRI.
2. In Nevada, nones matter more.
People with no religious identity, the so-called nones, make up a whopping 30 percent of Nevada residents, up from 22 percent in 2007, according to PRRI. And many in this group are warming to Sanders.
White mainline Protestants grew slightly but still make up only 13 percent.
Meanwhile, evangelicals remain at 10 percent, unchanged in eight years.
Catholics also held steady, at 12 percent, between the 2007 race and
the 2015 start of the 2016 campaign.
The two groups showing the biggest declines in religious market share
were Mormons (down to 6 percent from 11 percent) and Hispanic Catholics
(down to 9 percent from 13 percent.)
3. Religion continues to impact issues in the news.
Consider the hubbub over whether President Obama should nominate a
replacement for Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, who died suddenly
on Feb. 13. It was a hot topic at the GOP debate hours after Scalia’s
death was announced.
Obama says he’ll put forward a name. Both Democrats say he should do
so, but the GOP candidates uniformly say they don’t want anyone
nominated or confirmed until after a new president is sworn in.
The candidates’ response to any prospective justice may be shaped by
the nominee’s religion as well as his or her political ideology and
legal views. And candidates’ own religious beliefs might influence their
preferences — or objections — to a nominee. Evangelical Christians, for
example, may favor a justice who interprets the Constitution strictly
by its word-for-word meaning, just as they take the Bible literally
rather than viewing the text in the context of contemporary times.
There are no Protestants on the high court now. Scalia was Catholic, as
are five other justices (the remaining three are Jewish). How important
is it to reflect the nation where Protestants, while shrinking in
numbers, are still a dominant force in the culture? Look for the issue
to begin shaping the dynamics of the presidential primaries.
4. In the end, there’s (almost) always mention of God — or not.
Expect victory — or concession — speeches in South Carolina and Nevada
to have tweet-able mentions of the Almighty. After New Hampshire, Trump
said this: “I am going to be the greatest jobs president that God ever
created — remember that.”
Clinton, in her New Hampshire concession speech, went with a more
traditional reaction: “Do all the good you can in all the ways you can
for all the people you can.”
But not all references after the Granite State primary were overtly
religious. Sanders left out God but still made a moral plea in his
victory speech: “We have a moral responsibility” to work with countries
to move away from fossil fuels to sustainable energy.
5. Super Tuesday could change it all.
National religious trends will matter more when 14 primaries or caucuses are held March 1 for one or both parties.
Folks will choose their candidates in states from the Bible Belt to one
of the nation’s least religious states, Sanders’ home base of Vermont.
(Voting opens March 1 through 8 for Democrats living abroad.)
And this is just the start of America’s political version of
basketball’s March Madness — there will be more than two dozen more
primaries and caucuses before April.
This is when the relative clout of conservative Christians —
evangelical or Catholic — will be matched up with the rising power of
the nones, whose values are not tethered to any particular theology or
religious institutions.
Cathy Lynn Grossman is a senior national correspondent for RNS
Courtesy: Religion News Service
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