This is a preemptive analysis of the voting pattern in Ondo State as the Sunshine people head to the poll in the next 48 hours.
Many felt the Ondo State governorship election would be a fierce
battle between the Alliance for Democracy and the All Progressives
Congress (APC).
But, yesterday’s reinstatement of Eyitayo Jegede as the Peoples
Democratic Party’s (PDP’s) candidate by the Appeal Court ruling has
changed such perception. The contest will be a three-horse race with the
AD, APC and PDP battling for the mandate to occupy the Alagbaka
Government House. Group Political Editor Emmanuel Oladesu examines the
changes in geo-political calculations.
Yesterday’s Appeal Court judgment may have altered the
geo-political calculations in Ondo State. Twenty four hours, as it is
often said, is a long time in politics. Two days ago, analysts posited
that only two parties – the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the
Alliance for Democracy (AD) – as the major players in the governorship
election billed for Saturday.
But, as Mr. Eyitayo Jegede (SAN), resurfaced as the Peoples
Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, the poll has become a three-horse
race. The appellate court ruling sent the parties, their candidates,
supporters and other stakeholders, back to the drawing board to adjust
to the ‘eleventh hour’ reality.
Following the judgment, the antics of PDP’s controversial former
flag bearer, Mr. Jimoh Ibrahim, hit the rocks. Prior to the verdict, the
eminent trader and lawyer, was not perceived as a threat or a serious
contender. Popular attitude to his bid is that of an astute political
comedian, who is estranged from the legitimate pursuit of power in the
Sunshine State by the mainstream faction of his party, led by Senator
Ahmed Makarfi. The PDP national secretariat has decried his activities,
saying that he was a spoiler and willing tool in the hand of a bitter
factional leader, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff.
The disputed candidate was conscious of his limitations. He has
restricted his campaigns to his home town, Igbotako, and its environs.
His engagement with the larger electorate has been limited to the pages
of newspapers through advertorials. He never made known his blue-print.
According to analysts, some of his manifestos are laughable.
The live television governorship debate organised by Channels
Television revealed that Ibrahim was not ready for the challenge of
governance. Observers have suggested that he was merely in the race to
boost ego and settle personal scores with Governor Olusegun Mimiko, his
arch foe.
Implication of Jegede’s return
The lucky man is Jegede, who has just received his own baptism of
fire. Until his entry into the race, he was the Attorney-General and
Commissioner for Justice. His triumph at the Court of Appeal has
implications. His party, which was on edge, has been instantly revived,
energised and motivated to fight an electoral battle.
There was jubilation by party members across the state as the
verdict rekindled their hope and relevance. Party chieftains who have
been hobnobbing with other parties, with a view to forging an alliance,
have started retracing their steps.
Also, the ‘Akure Agenda’ is on the front burner again. It would
have died with the eclipse of Jegede’s ambition. Even, Akure indigenes
in the APC and the AD cannot publicly object to the collective
aspiration of the capital town to produce the next governor. The old
Akure Division comprise of Akure, Iju, Ita-Ogbolu, Oba-Ile, Ijare,
Isarun, Ilara-Mokin, Igbara-Odo, Oda and Ogbese. The push for power
shift is being rationalised by patriots who believe that, since the
state capital has not produced an elected governor since the Third
Republic, the agenda should be supported in the spirit of fair play and
justice.
Agenda versus zoning
The ‘Akure Agenda’ is in conflict with the rotational principle of
the ruling party. If zoning is adhered to strictly, the slot should have
gone to either the North or the South senatorial zone. Akure is in the
Central District. Incumbent Governor Mimiko, whose two terms will expire
in January, next year, is from Ondo kingdom, which is also in the
central district. But, the district is a potent electoral constituency.
Its numerical strength is always the deciding factor. The bloc votes
from Akure and Ondo, usually, are the game changer.
There were a lot of permutations in that period of anxiety and
tension. PDP followers, thinking that hope was lost, beckoned on the
governor to give directive on the way forward. Two options were open to
him, but they were not politically viable. Although Mimiko had the
option of seizing the opportunity for alignment with the APC, there were
fears that the terms of agreement may not be honoured in post-election
period. It was insinuated that an APC/PDP pact would have given the
governor a soft-landing after leaving office.
But, it paled into a narrow, selfish and egocentric view. Also, the
option of a deal between Mimiko and Olusola Oke, the AD candidate, was a
no-go area. The move would have been frustrated by pre-existing feud
and bitterness. Since the days of former Governor Agagu, the two
politicians have parted ways. Many believed that Oke called it quit with
the PDP, shortly after last year’s polls, following disagreement with
the governor after he defected from the Labour Party.
Calls for poll’s shift
Two days ago, Ondo PDP chieftains were fretting. Sensing that the
protracted litigation may drag on till the poll day, they urged the
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to postpone the
election.
The temporary setback has taken its toll on the party. The PDP is
trailing other parties in mobilisation and campaigns. No serious voter
education has been done by the party during the period of tribulation.
Party leaders have not made necessary preparations for the selection of
party agents to mount the polling stations. Other logistics may not have
been contemplated. Their sole pre-occupation was nomination-triggered
litigation, which has now been resolved to the advantage of the Mimiko
faction. Now, Mimiko and Jegede have two days to campaign.
As it is in PDP, so it is in APC
It is evident that the PDP will go to the poll as a divided house.
The faction led by Niyi Poroye, is a paper-weight faction without
tentacles across the local governments. But, the impact of the division
will not be as devastating as the acrimony and disunity in the APC. Many
of the leading lights in the APC, who felt aggrieved with the outcome
of the party’s shadow poll that threw up Akeredolu, have kept their
distance.
Issues at stake
Many issues will shape Saturday’s contest. These include money,
federal might, popularity of candidates, re-alignment of forces,
ethnicity and the agitations for zoning and power shift. The performance
of the APC government at the centre and the PDP government at the state
level are not significant factors. Judging by the combative nature of
candidates and their fanatical supporters, the 26, 000 policemen
deployed in the state would expect the best but prepare for the worse in
some flash points.
The APC and AD have returned to the drawing board. They had hoped
to profit from Jegede’s exclusion from the race, as it were. Both
parties have shifted attention to Akure and Ondo, which have remained
the strongholds of the PDP. For the parties, a realistic appraisal of
the contest has become more compelling.
Eyes are on Akure. There are two local governments in the division.
These are Akure North and Akure South. The indigenes are united by the
pursuit of the power shift on the platform of the ‘Akure Agenda.’ To
them, the tragedy that befell Jegede before the judicial intervention
was a collective nightmare. His displacement by Ibrahim was painful to
the traditional rulers and indigenes.
In 2012, the capital town had turned its back against the APC.
Before the Court of Appeal judgment, the thinking in Akure was that the
top leaders of the APC had hands in Jegede’s tribulations. Thus, Oke was
about to make an in-road into the area, with a view to carting away
protest votes. However, while Jegede may get majority of Akure South
votes, the APC may get some votes in Akure South, where Senator Tayo
Alasoadura hails from.
Some analysts have dissected the composition of the Akure
electorate. The state capital plays host to indigenes and non-indigenes
from far and near. Therefore, if the non-indigenes are politically
organised and targeted by candidates, a bloc vote for a particular
candidate may pale into day dreaming.
Also, the PDP has a strong presence in Ondo and Ile-Oluji/Oke-Igbo.
Although Ondo and Ile-Oluji/Oke-Igbo are contiguous, the latter has
been lumped with the local governments in the South District. Naturally,
the votes from the Ondo East and Ondo West may go to the ruling party,
owing to the popularity of the governor. Mimiko has ensured that the
local government areas benefitted from some developmental projects.
However, the three parties – AD, APC and PDP – will lock horns in
Ile-Oluji/Oke-Igbo. Oke is leaving no stone unturned to win the council.
The APC family, led by Wale Akinterinwa, appears more determined than
2012.
In Idanre/Ifedore local government, which is another stronghold of
the PDP, Mimiko is popular. He has never lost any electoral battle there
since 2007. In the last few weeks, the people were weary, thinking that
the PDP had no acceptable candidate. Apathy was predicted by analysts.
But Jegede’s reinstatement may have cleared the coast for the PDP in the
local government area.
The Akoko Northwest council will be a battle ground between
Akeredolu and Oke. There are many APC chieftains who may convince the
people to vote for Akeredolu. But, the AD also hopes to reap from the
fact that Oke’s running mate, Gani Dauda, is from the area. He is a
grassroots politician and he has represented the constituency in the
House of Representatives. Since there was no reconciliation, following
the disputed primary, aggrieved governorship aspirants may not be
inclined to mobilising their supporters to vote for the APC candidate.
One of them, Dr. Olusegun Abraham, who hails from the council, is still
challenging Akeredolu’s victory at the primary. Many community leaders
are bitter at the APC because, in their view, the Akoko aspirants were
‘edged’ out from the selection process to pave the way for an aspirant
from Owo. However, the saving grace for Akeredolu is the presence of
party followers who cannot change alliance easily.
Akeredolu also has fans in Akoko Southwest. Four years ago, he had
an impressive showing there at the close of poll. His structure is
solid in the council. His campaign director, Victor Olabimtan, has been
combing up the area, selling his candidature. Although the influence of
the PDP cannot be dismissed with a wave of the hand, the party is
lagging behind in mobilisation. Mimiko has supporters in the council,
but, the PDP appears to be a late comer.
The APC and AD are struggling for the votes of Akoko Southeast.
They appear to be at par in consultations, mobilisation and campaigns.
Akeredolu and Oke have fanatical supporters, although Oke got more votes
than him in the 2012 poll in the area. The people may have developed an
emotional attachment to Oke because he picked his running mate from
Akoko.
Before the APC primary, Akoko Northeast was the stronghold of the
APC. Abraham hails from Ikare-Akoko, headquarter of the council. There
is bitterness against the APC over the improper resolution of the
primary crisis. If Abraham’s supporters team up with Oke, the APC may
not be able to make an in-road.
Unlike the 2012 poll, Owo is more passionate about Akeredolu. The
town is united behind him. But, some indigenes are still working for the
PDP and the AD out of principle. Many eminent indigenes are rooting for
Akeredolu and they see the election as a personal battle. Akeredolu
will win in Owo.
The influence of the APC is not in dispute in Ose council. But,
things are changing. Oke’s foot soldiers have invaded the local
government.
In Irele council, Oke is the undisputed leader. He will repeat the success recorded in 2012. AD will clear the votes in Irele.
Also, the people of Okitipupa are rooting for the AD. Oke is
popular in the council. In 2012, he cleared the votes. The scenario will
be repeated. AD will win the council.
In Ese-Odo local government, Oke is the candidate to beat in
Ese-Odo. The people are emotionally attached to his aspiration to rule.
He enjoys mass acceptance.
The homeboy will win Ilaje, his local government of birth. Other parties have no chance at all in Ilaje council.
The PDP has a strong footing in Odigbo. Before the latest court
judgment, the party was in distress. But, it will now be a fierce battle
between Jegede and Oke in the council.
Culled from The Nation
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