In The Long Run, We Are All Dead

As the current harsh economic realities in Nigeria keep hitting hard at Nigerians from every corner, Ayodele Adio explains the need for immediate action.

File photo: Nigerians

 

One of the finest economic thinkers the world ever saw, John Maynard Keynes, succinctly submitted, and I concur, that “The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead “.

 

You wouldn’t need to consult any oracle to reveal the realities of our current affairs when we have as good indicators a pocket and a stomach. There is hunger in the land, people are getting disillusioned, the future seems bleak but yet you and I are urged by ‘constituted authority’ , to hold unto a thin thread of faith that tomorrow will be better.

 

Forgive my scepticism of promises emanating from The Aso Villa, but like TY Danjuma sagaciously argued, when a crusader is deficient of integrity, who will believe his gospel. We seem to be in between a rock and a hard place, the consumer price index (inflation) for December 2016 currently sits at 18.55%, compare this figure with that of Ivory Coast, the fastest growing economy in Africa, which sits at just 1.7% with an interest rate of only 3.5%. It is thus no surprise why Ivory Coast has suddenly leap frogged Nigeria as the most attractive place to do business in Africa according to Africa prospects indicator, which assesses macro-economic and business prospects for 26 African countries.

 

So while we are busy with our “karambani” and political “monafiki”, a country like Ivory Coast, after many years of political paralysis have rolled up their sleeves and found the right economic rhythm that produced an 8.5% growth in the last year. Unlike us, they didn’t pay lip service to diversification.

 

They currently invest 22% of their budget on education, reduced the cost of creating a  new business by 70%, granted a two year tax break to new businesses, guaranteed 20% of public tenders to small and medium enterprises and have tremendously increased loans to the private sector.  In our case, interest rates are touching the clouds making it almost impossible for business to increase capacity, the result is the folding up of many and loss of jobs to millions as was the case when last year alone, over three million jobs were lost.

 

Of course, with such incoherence in policy and the absence of a Marshall plan to galvanise this nation out of this parlous state, I am forced to believe that the government is playing Russian roulette with our lives. I however must commend the effort of the Senate President,  Bukola Saraki for spear heading a ‘Made in Nigeria ‘ campaign aimed at stimulating the local economy and more pertinently for the leadership in amending the public procurement act to favour local content.

 

This is certainly a grand step in the right direction but must be linked to more inclusive polices from the executive. If the grumblings of the oil marketers is anything to go by, then we are edging closer to another painful increase in the pump price of petrol. Imagine for a second that petrol is being sold for 200 naira per litre or even above, kerosene now sells for between 300 to 400 naira a litre, a 12kg gas fills for over 5000 naira, zero increase in income (that is if you are even paid),  epileptic power supply, horrendous foreign exchange policy and rising food prices.

 

Who then will be alive to enjoy whatever happens in the long run. Former president Ibrahim Babangida once said that “the work of Nigeria is not yet complete as long as there is one Nigerian that goes to bed hungry”.  

 

Apologies to the General but I dare say that the work of Nigeria has not even begun when over 60 million Nigerians go to bed hungry. The time to act is now, policies must bring succour speedily to the people as we can no longer wait for the future, knowing so well that in the long run we are all dead.

 

Mr.  Ayodele Adio, a social critic, wrote from Lagos.